Declining enrollment remains a long-term challenge for the Boulder Valley School District, but this year’s numbers were better than expected — by nearly 1%, or just under 250 students. A larger-than-projected kindergarten cohort helped cushion the decline and has improved enrollment forecasts.
Since enrollment directly impacts state funding, the new projections have given district leaders cautious optimism.
“We’re trending in the direction you would’ve hoped for when we started this back in 2021,” Superintendent Rob Anderson said at a school board meeting this month.
The board first raised concerns about declining enrollment in late 2021 and formed the Long Range Advisory Committee (LRAC) in spring 2022 to track trends and recommend policy responses.
BVSD’s declining enrollment is driven by lower birth rates, families having children later and Boulder’s high housing costs, which make it difficult for young families to stay, according to the district. Fewer students can lead to larger class sizes, reduced programs and resources, and potential school closures. The impact goes beyond schools, making it harder to keep young families in the area, weakening neighborhood stability, and limiting future workforce growth.
At the Feb. 9 school board meeting, the LRAC shared its annual trend report, showing a shift in enrollment projections. Four elementary schools — Mesa, Coal Creek, Flatirons and Birch — are no longer expected to reach critically low enrollment by 2029. However, they’re still seeing declines and could fall below key thresholds after that.
Schools with fewer than two classrooms per grade level and operating below 60% capacity enter an advisory phase, where resources may be cut and classes combined. This year, eight schools meet that threshold: Coal Creek, Community Montessori, Eisenhower, Eldorado K-5, Flatirons, Kohl, Mesa and Whittier. Eisenhower and Whittier are in this phase for the first time.
Schools operating at 50% capacity or lower, with fewer than 1.5 classes per grade, enter a community engagement phase. This process is designed to increase enrollment but can also lead to closures or grade-level reassignments if numbers don’t improve.
Heatherwood Elementary in Gunbarrel is the first BVSD school to enter this phase. Kohl and Whittier are expected to follow by 2029. As part of its engagement process, Heatherwood will shift to an environmental STEAM curriculum next year. Superintendent Anderson said the change is already having an impact: The school has lost no neighborhood students to open enrollment for next year and has seen a slight increase in enrollment.
Despite these efforts, Heatherwood’s enrollment is still projected to decline from 47% to 43% by 2029.
Across the district, policy changes appear to be easing some of the impact of declining enrollment. A new Bright Futures policy, which prioritizes enrollment for students whose parents work in the district but live elsewhere, has so far accepted about 270 students for next year who would otherwise be zoned out.
New data dashboard aims to provide clarity
Declining enrollment is a complex issue, and the data used to understand it has been scattered and difficult to piece together into a coherent narrative. To address this, Assistant Superintendent of Operations Rob Price has led a project to create a public data dashboard, set to launch soon.
A draft of the dashboard, presented to the school board this month, is designed to provide clearer insights for the LRAC and board members. It includes data on birth rates — declining almost everywhere, but most notably in North Boulder, where they have dropped by 250 births per year compared to 2006 — as well as enrollment trends in special programs like free and reduced lunch, which is on the rise.
“By having these tools we empower our community to know what’s happening with declining enrollment in a way that’s as transparent as any school district I’ve seen in the country,” Anderson said.
“I don’t think anybody has this depth of analysis publicly available to every single parent and community member who’s curious and wants to know,” he added. “And I think that’s important as we work to kind of navigate these things and build trust.”
State funding proposal adds uncertainty
Beyond enrollment declines, BVSD faces uncertainty from potential state budget changes.
Gov. Jared Polis has proposed changing how enrollment is counted for school funding. Currently, schools receive funding based on a rolling five-year average. Under Polis’ proposal, schools would be funded based on current-year enrollment instead — a shift that would save the state $160 million in education funding.
Since enrollment is declining statewide, this change would reduce budgets for 80% of Colorado school districts. For BVSD, it could mean a $4 million loss based on last year’s enrollment projections — just a fraction of the district’s overall budget, but roughly equivalent to the cost of operating an elementary school.
Polis’ proposal isn’t final, and lobbying efforts by school districts could lead to changes. The final state budget will be signed by summer.